RONDELI BLOG
NATO’s possible expansion in Northern Europe and its significance for Georgia and Ukraine
Nino Chanadiri, Contributing Analyst
In parallel with the Ukraine crisis, the possibility of NATO’s expansion in Northern Europe, which implies the membership of Sweden and Finland, is being discussed more and more actively. As is whether, in fact, it means that Russia’s latest moves regarding Ukraine accelerate what Putin opposes so vehemently - bringing NATO even closer to Russia's borders.
Late last year, Russia introduced demands for "legal guarantees" to ease tensions around Ukraine. Those demands include NATO stopping its expansion to the east, and for the deployment of NATO troops and weapons in Eastern Europe to be limited. This caused concerns in Finland and Sweden, who are not NATO members but actively cooperate with the alliance. In the light of growing threats from Russia in recent years, the debate over NATO membership in these countries has become increasingly relevant. The Russian demands highlighted to the authorities in these countries that opposition from Russia to the future expansion of NATO could reduce not only Ukraine’s, but also their ability to make an independent political decision on their foreign moves.
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde noted of Russia’s demands on NATO’s non-expansion, that compromises about this issue from NATO would have a significant impact on Sweden's security. On 16 February, the Minister presented a 2022 statement on foreign policy to the parliament, stating that Sweden has no plans to join NATO. However, it emphasizes that one of the main pillars of Sweden's foreign and security policy is deepened cooperation with the alliance. The statement drew particular attention to the Russian threat to European security and that “Ukraine, like Sweden, has the right to make its own security policy choices”. The president of Finland Sauli Niinistö responded to the situation in January and declared that the demands from Russia were a challenge to European security and Finland’s sovereignty. He cited the EU as a party in the conflict, whose members’ sovereignties are under threat, and said the EU's role in the process should be more active than just the technical coordination of sanctions.
NATO’s attitude is also principled. In January, after meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Finland and Sweden, the NATO Secretary General said that only NATO member states and Finland and Sweden can decide on the membership of these countries in the alliance. According to former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, although the issue is not on the agenda at the moment, Finland and Sweden are NATO's closest partners and if they wish, their membership can be decided overnight.
In parallel with the growing relevance of this topic, a warning was issued by Russia that the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO would have military and political consequences “that would require an adequate response from Russia”.
In light of the threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine, Sweden and Finland enhanced their military readiness, as they anticipate that the war could have an impact on neighboring countries as well. Sweden has sent troops and armaments to the strategic island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea.
Island of Gotland (Source: Financial Times)
The current Russian-Ukrainian crisis is not the first time an aggravated situation in the Black Sea basin has had a significant impact on the Baltic Sea region. After the events in 2008 and 2014 in Georgia and Ukraine, the perception in the Baltic Sea region was strengthened that Russia is ready to use force against territorially close states to hinder their cooperation and accession to NATO. This was followed by steps to strengthen the security of countries in the region. The Swedish Security Service has declared many times that various kinds of attacks on Sweden “have broadened and deepened in recent years”. In 2020, it was announced that Sweden would significantly increase its defense spending for 2021-2025, which was linked to increasing threats in the Baltic Sea region. By 2022, Finland had also upped spending on air defense.
Attitudes in Swedish and Finnish societies
Both Sweden and Finland are in close cooperation with NATO. However, in both societies, positions on membership are not homogenous. While NATO membership in Georgia and Ukraine is associated with security guarantees in the neighborhood of Russia, Sweden and Finland, which are also Russia's neighbors, have traditionally avoided membership in the military alliance. According to the last surveys in Sweden, 37% of the countries citizens support NATO membership, while 35% oppose it and 28% do not have a clear position. Over the years, however, a positive trend has been observed in terms of the growing number of NATO supporters. In previous years, the number of supporters did not exceed 32%, while more than 40% opposed.
Support for NATO membership is relatively low (26%) in Finland. 40% are against membership of the alliance, while the number of citizens without a specific position is also significantly high (33%). Yet, as in Sweden, the number of opponents of NATO membership has been declining in Finland over the years.
In the political sphere, most parties in Finland traditionally do not support the country's potential membership in the military alliance, and believe that close cooperation with NATO is sufficient. In Sweden, however, attitudes are relatively divided. The ruling Social Democrats are in favor of military non-allignment, while the idea of NATO membership is gaining more support in opposition parties - including the largest party in parliament, the "Moderate Party". In recent years, thanks to the support of opposition parties, the Swedish parliament has adopted the so-called NATO Option, which means the country can consider NATO membership if the need arises.
Given the lack of support from the majority in Swedish and Finnish societies, the prospect of NATO membership seems less likely at this stage. However, as Russian aggression grows, the number of supporters of NATO membership is increasing. If Russia launches an attack on Ukraine, it will be a clear signal to the citizens of both countries of the threat to their sovereignty too, which could lead to a change in attitude. In Sweden and Finland, the number of people with no clear position regarding membership is quite high. In parallel with the growing security challenges, their support is expected to shift towards alliance membership.
Sweden and Finland are actively cooperating in the field of defense and security policy. It is likely that public opinion will be influenced by the second country’s choice regarding membership: If Sweden decides to join NATO in future amid growing support, it is expected that this will encourage Finland to decide to join the alliance too. It is less likely to be favorable for Finland to stay as a buffer zone in Northern Europe between NATO and Russia. It is expected that the two states will maintain active communication regarding NATO accession, and their decisions will be agreed with each other.
Although the ruling parties of both countries are among those who have not previously supported membership in the military alliance, recent events show that the Finnish and Swedish authorities want to maintain the possibility of joining NATO if it is in the interest of national security.
What is the significance of NATO expansion in Northern Europe for Georgia and Ukraine?
The support of Northern European countries to the Eastern European states, including Georgia and Ukraine, has always been firm. Sweden, together with Poland, is the initiator of the Eastern Partnership program, in which Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are considered successful members. If Sweden joins NATO in future, it is expected that these countries will acquire another supporter in the alliance.
Not allowing Russia to influence NATO’s “open door policy” is crucial for Georgia and Ukraine. As mentioned above, if a positive decision is made in Sweden and Finland, the process of their accession to the alliance will proceed quickly. The entry of these countries into the alliance will be proof that NATO does not “trade” on this principle issue with Russia, and the opportunity to join also remains for Georgia and Ukraine, who are considered future members after being, as it is often referred to in NATO, “ready to join as a result of various reforms.”
NATO’s expansion to Northern Europe will be a significant blow to Russia. It will be a long-term effect of Putin's "Ukrainian venture” and is also likely to have consequences for his domestic political image. If he starts a war in Ukraine, it is likely that this will only strengthen the aspirations of Russia’s northern neighbors for NATO, thus, in fact, he will be contributing to what he opposes so vehemently.
Related posts
- Hungary’s illiberal influence on Georgia’s European integration: a worrying pattern
- France’s Geopolitical Considerations: A Closer Look at its Stance on NATO’s Enlargement towards Ukraine and Georgia at the Vilnius Summit
- NATO Summit in Vilnius: Results and future perspectives
- Expected Political Consequences of the Restoration of Railway Communication Between Russia and Georgia through Occupied Abkhazia
- The 11th package of EU sanctions and Georgia
- Occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region: Trade “Legalization” and Prospects of the Russian Transit Corridor
- Is Ukraine Winning the War and What Might Russia's Calculation Be?
- Russia's Diplomatic Offensive in Africa
- Russia’s New Foreign Policy Concept and the Occupied Regions of Georgia
- Why Estonia’s parliamentary elections matter for Ukraine and Eastern Europe?
- Is America’s Ukrainian War Fatigue” Real?
- Power of the people in Georgia: The EU must remain vigilant
- The Tenth Package of Sanctions - One Year of Russian Aggression
- Dynamics of China-Russia relations against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian War
- The Russia-Ukraine War and Russia's Long-Term Strategic Interests
- Flight Resumption with Russia - Potential Consequences for Georgia
- On the "Agent of Foreign Influence'' Bill and Its Disastrous Consequences for Georgia
- Hybrid War with Russian Rules and Ukrainian Resistance
- Moldova’s challenges alongside the war in Ukraine
- How the Sino-American Competition Looks from Tbilisi
- Is Israel's New Government Shifting its Policy towards the Russia-Ukraine War?
- What does Russia want from Georgia?
- Geopolitics, Turkish Style, and How to React to It
- The Ninth Package of Sanctions - in Response to the Russian Escalation and Missile Attacks
- The Danger Russia’s Neighbors May Face after the Russo-Ukrainian War
- The Biden Doctrine and its Implications for Georgia
- Belarus and Russia deepen trade and economic relations with occupied Abkhazia: A prerequisite for recognition of Abkhazia's “independence”?
- "Captured emotions" - Russian propaganda
- A Looming Winter Energy Crisis in Europe: Can Azerbaijan Become the Continent’s Next Large Energy Supplier?
- The Eighth Package of Sanctions - Response to Russian Annexation and Illegal Referendums
- What’s next for Italy’s foreign policy after Giorgia Meloni’s victory?
- War in Ukraine and Russia’s declining role in the Karabakh peace process
- The Russian Exclave of Kaliningrad and the Lithuanian "Sting"
- Seventh Package of Sanctions and Embargo on Russian Gold
- Czech Presidency of the EU: Time for Re-orienting EU Foreign Policy?
- What could be the cost of “Putin’s face-saving” for European relations
- In line for the candidate status, Georgia will get a European perspective. What are we worried about?
- The break-up of the Hungarian-Polish coalition - an opportunity for the EU
- Failed Tskhinvali Referendum
- The War and Georgia
- "Autocratic Peace"
- “Rural Orbanism”- Polarization as a determinant for Hungary's political future
- Illegal Presidential Elections in the Tskhinvali Region: Why Bibilov Lost and What to Anticipate in Future
- How to Respond to Russian Ultra-Orthodox-Historic-Hegemonism?
- The War in Ukraine and the UK’s New Role in Eastern Europe
- What Will the Abolition of the OSCE Minsk Group Bring to the South Caucasus?
- The Presidential Election in France and Europe’s Political Future
- Will Pashinyan Be Able to Make a Drastic Turnaround in Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations?
- Why Has the Abkhaz Side Become More Active on Social Networks?
- Why a Neutral Ukraine Is Not on Putin’s Mind (Ukraine’s Neutral Status Is Getting Closer, but What Does It Mean to Putin?)
- Europe's energy future - challenges and opportunities
- Uncontrolled Mass Immigration and the Position of the Georgian Government
- Changes in Putin's propaganda narratives since the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Ukraine will soon embark on a path of practical integration into the European Union. What about Georgia?
- Positions and Actions of Turkey in the Russo-Ukrainian War
- Political Winter Olympics in Beijing
- What Is behind Putin’s Sudden Gambit in Ukraine?
- Abkhazia in 2021: Energy Crisis, New “Minister” and Political Controversy
- L'Europe pourra-t-elle éviter le “déjà vu” ? (France, President of the Council of the European Union, and the Tensions in Eastern Europe)
- US-Russia Relations and the Issue of Ukraine
- The New Targets of Ramzan Kadyrov’s Regime
- What are the Prospects of the Eastern Partnership Summit Set on 15 December?
- The Upcoming EaP Summit - Why the Trio Initiative Should Finally Find Its Way
- What Will the Post-Merkel Era Mean for the EU’s Russia and Eastern Neighbourhood Policy?
- What Lies Behind the Growing Cooperation of the Georgian and Hungarian Governments
- “Doberman” as a Minister: Inal Ardzinba’s Prospects and Challenges
- The Belarus Crisis: How to Enhance Our Resilience Against the Russian Strategy for Its Near-Neighborhood
- Moldova’s Gas Crisis Has Been Russia’s Yet Another Political Blackmailing
- EU-Poland’s worsened relations and what it means for the EaP
- Lessons From Germany on Political Culture: What Georgia Can Learn From the German Parliamentary Elections
- Belarus One Year On: An Insecure Regime Under Russian “Protection”
- Why Did Iran-Azerbaijan Relations Become Strained?
- Russia’s Parliamentary Elections - What Can Be Said About the Regime’s Stability
- Six Key Takeaways from State of the Union Address - Too Little on EU Enlargement?
- An Emerging Foreign Policy Trend in Central and Eastern Europe: A Turn from China to Taiwan?
- Vaccination: “To Be, or not to Be”…
- Can Georgia use China to balance Russia?
- Sharia Patrols in Kabardino-Balkaria: A Growing Trend or a Local Conflict?
- Belarus’ exit from the Eastern Partnership and what to expect next
- Pacta Sunt Servanda: Agreements must be kept
- The West vs Russia: The Reset once again?!
- Associated Trio, What is Next?
- Formation of a New “Political Elite” in Abkhazia - Who Will Replace the Old “Elite?”
- The symbolism of the EU flag and why a true Christian would not tear it down and burn it
- The Cyber-Dimension of the Geneva Summit
- Securitization of the Arctic: A Looming Threat of Melting Ice
- Europe in Anticipation of the Results of a “Harmful Deal”
- What Should Georgia Expect from the NATO Summit
- The Issue of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region in the Context of NATO and European Union Membership
- (Re)Mapping the EU’s Relations with Russia: Time for Change?
- USA, Liberal International Order, Challenges of 2021, and Georgia
- The Political Crisis in Moldova: A Deadlock without the Way Out?
- Russia's Testing or Bullying?
- Georgia's transit opportunities, novelties and challenges against the backdrop of the pandemic
- ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’: A New Opportunity for Global Authoritarian Influence?
- Deal with the ‘Dragon’: What Can Be the Repercussions of the China-EU Investment Agreement?
- Georgia’s Application for European Union Membership
- A New Dawn for Transatlantic Relations under Biden’s Presidency: What Are the Hopes for Georgia?
- The End of the Russian Natural Gas Monopoly in Balkans
- Who did the judge sentence: Navalny, Putin or Russia?
- Biden’s Conundrum
- 2020 Developments in Abkhazia: “Elections,” the Pandemic and Deeper Integration with Russia
- The Hungarian Crisis: Is the EU Failing against Authoritarianism?
- Could Belarus Become a Prelude to the Great Polish-Swedish War 400 Years Ago?
- Vladimir Putin's Annual Grand Press Conference - Notable Elements and Messages
- COVID 19 Pandemic Economic Crisis and Reducing the Instability of Georgia’s National Currency
- Russia’s Energy Policy in the Tskhinvali Region
- Who Won and Who Lost with the War in Karabakh?
- What Russia has Gained in Karabakh
- What Armenia Did and Did not Lose as a Result of the Ceasefire Declaration in Karabakh
- Escalation of the Karabakh Conflict: Threats and Challenges for Georgia
- Protests in Belarus, Lukashenko and the Russian Federation
- Some Thoughts on the Use of the Term „Post-Soviet Space“
- Georgia’s European Way During the Period of Pandemic Deglobalization
- Turkey's Caucasus Policy Against the Backdrop of the Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions
- Khabarovsk Krai Protests as an Indicator of the Russian Federation’s Stability
- The Pragmatism and Idealism of the Georgian-American Partnership
- Independence of Georgia and the Historic Responsibility of Our Generation
- Trio Pandemic Propaganda: How China, Russia and Iran Are Targeting the West
- Complications Caused by the Coronavirus in Turkey and Their Influence on Georgia
- From Russia with… a Canny Plan
- “Elections” in Abkhazia: New “President’s” Revanche and Challenges
- Consumer Crisis in the Tskhinvali Region: Food for Thought
- Georgians Fighting the Same Battle 99 Years Later
- Georgian Defense – Political Paradox and the Vicious Circle of Not Having a System
- Confrontation between Russia and Turkey in Syria
- Why It Matters: Georgia’s 'Troll Scandal' Explained
- Political Crisis in Occupied Abkhazia
- What is the Significance of Killing General Qasem Soleimani?
- What Will the New Dialogue Format with Russia Bring for Georgia?
- On the “Russian Culture Center” in Georgia
- Whither Economic Policy?
- Main Messages of Russian Propaganda
- Massive Cyberattacks On Georgia Calls For Defense And Resilience
- What do we know about the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Russian Federation and Georgia?
- What is the Connection between NATO and Reclaiming Abkhazia?
- New Focuses of the Anti-Occupation Policy
- Georgia's Problems are not Addressed at G7 Meetings: Who is to Blame?
- Vladimir Putin’s Main Messages in his Interview with the Financial Times
- Georgia and Russia’s Post-modern Fascism
- Dugin has Come Out as a Supporter of Georgia – How Did This Happen?
- The Outcome of the European Parliament Elections - What Does it Mean for Georgia?
- Ten Years Since the Establishment of the Eastern Partnership
- Deterring Russia
- On NATO, Russia and Pat Buchanan
- Why Local Elections of March 31, 2019 in Turkey are Important?
- Does the Principle of Strategic Partnership Work in Ukraine-Georgia Relations?
- A New Chance for Circular Labor Migration between Georgia and the EU
- Modern Russia’s Own Wars of Religion
- Georgia’s Trade with Electricity: The Influence of Bitcoin
- Bolton’s visit to Moscow– what to expect in U.S-Russia relations?
- Georgia’s External Trade: How to Strengthen Positive Trends
- The Risk of the Renewal of the Karabakh Conflict after the Velvet Revolution in Armenia
- The Situation in Syria’s Idlib Province, Interests of the Parties and Threats
- The Helsinki Summit and its General Results
- Why It Is Necessary to Know the Day the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 Started
- Decisive Struggle for the Independence of the Ukrainian Church
- Georgia’s Position in the Westernization Index 2018
- Why Did the Results of the G7 Summit in Charlevoix not Meet Our Expectations?
- How to Win Cold War 2.0
- The Ben Hodges Model – a Real Way for Georgia’s Membership in NATO
- The Russian “Ambassador’s” Rotation in Abkhazia
- EU Soft Power and the Armenian [R]evolution
- Why did the Foreign Ministers of G7 not remember Georgia during their 23 April 2018 Toronto Meeting?
- Georgia and the American Strategy
- Putin’s Pre-Election Economic Promises: Myth and Reality
- Trade of Electricity: Successes of 2016, Reality of 2017 and Future Prospects– the Impact of Bitcoin (Part Two)
- Let Geneva Stay the Way it is
- Trade of Electricity: Successes of 2016, Reality of 2017 and Future Prospects – the Impact of Bitcoin (Part One)
- Turkey’s Military Operation in Afrin – a New Phase in the Syrian Conflict
- Kremlin New Appointments and the Occupied Regions of Georgia
- Geopolitical Vision of the Russian Opposition
- Who Gets Russian Help?
- Dangers Originating from Russia and Georgia’s Security System
- Eurasian Custom Union and problems of Russian – Georgian FTA
- Is Georgia’s Export Growth Sustainable?
- Russia’s Influence over the Field of Security in Tskhinvali Region is Growing: Support for Full Integration
- What Awaits the People of Gali?
- Growth of Military Spending and Relations with Russia: Azerbaijan trying to Gain Advantage over Armenia
- Disrupt and Distract: Russia’s Methodology of Dealing with the West
- Trojan Horse Model IL- 76 or Why Would Russia Want to Fight Georgia’s Forest Fires
- Russian Diplomats in Georgia – who are they, how many of them are there and what are they up to
- Putin’s Visit to the Occupied Abkhazia: Was our Reaction Actually Adequate?
- Pence’s Visit to Georgia: Several Lessons and What We Should be Expecting
- Is it Acceptable for Georgia to Declare Neutrality?
- Georgia’s European Perspective in the Context of EU’s Future Evolution
- Brexit Negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom have been re-launched: What will be their Influence on Georgia?
- How to Stop the “Creeping Occupation”
- Kremlin’s Policy in the Occupied Regions of Georgia Moves to a New Stage
- Syrian Civil War in the Context of Regional Security
- The Winnable Second Round of Russia’s Neighbors’ Struggle against Its Imperialism
- Turkey’s Domestic and Foreign Policy in the Context of Regional Security
- Post-Soviet States – Struggle for the Legitimation of Power
- Parliamentary Elections in Armenia – The Triumph of the Governing Party
- Current Foreign Policy of Georgia: How Effective is it in Dealing with the Existing Challenges?
- Military Resilience - a Needed Factor for NATO-Partners
- Observations on the Agreement Reached with Gazprom
- New Russian Weaponry in the Caucasus and Its Impact on Georgia’s NATO Aspiration