RONDELI BLOG
Deterring Russia
By Irina Arabidze, International Relations Analyst
During the past two weeks, we have been hearing statements about the necessity of reducing Georgia’s defense budget, about provocativeness of U.S. military bases and even about declaring neutrality. Despite the fact that according to the most recent polls, the support for Euro-Atlantic integration has increased in Georgia, the foreign policy consensus is no longer a given in the country. Keeping these discussions in mind, it is important to analyze why these statements are harmful, how we can fight an opponent who is much stronger than us and what obstacles and opportunities there are on the way.
What are the ways of opposing a much stronger opponent? States can obtain security in three ways: by boosting their military potential, by acquiring strong allies or, in the best case scenario, by having access to both. In order to ensure their security, small states often need both, since a well-trained army and reserve forces serve as a first line of defense, while strong allies ensure that power distribution does not overwhelmingly favor the enemy.
What is Georgia’s status quo? The Russian Federation is our adversary who is much stronger than us and aims to restore the lost influence in its neighborhood. In case of Georgia, Russia tries to do this by using a full spectrum of military, political and economic leverages. This includes war, occupation of our territories, and illegal deployment of military bases and equipment in our country.
In the existing security environment what are our options for improving our position? We have two interconnected options: significantly boosting our military potential and looking for strong allies. Contrary to these alternatives, some believe that we need to reach a compromise with Russia in order to restore territorial integrity and avoid war. They camouflage this idea using the concepts of non-alignment and neutrality; however, in reality, we are dealing with the concept of “Finlandization,” which dates back to the Cold War era. According to this model, we need to give up our independent foreign policy. This means abandoning our Euro-Atlantic integration course. In return, Russia will not occupy us and we will maintain nominal sovereignty and peace alone.
In reality though, by declaring neutrality we would be capitulating. Announcing neutrality is impossible under the circumstances when Russia is actively fighting against Georgia’s sovereignty and independence and does not plan to stay neutral in this confrontation. To put it simply, Russia will not fulfill its obligations. If the West does not guarantee our security, nothing will force Russia to curtail its aggressive policies against Georgia. Even the Cold War era example of Finland shows that instead of avoiding interference, Russia purposefully and aggressively intruded in the Finish domestic affairs. We also have plenty of modern-day examples when Russia reneged on its agreement pledges. The Six-Point Agreement signed as a result of the 2008 Georgia-Russia August War is only one of them.
Moreover, it is important to understand that it is not in the Russian interests to give up Georgia’s occupied territories. Moldova, for example, has yet to reclaim Transnistria, despite announcing neutrality back in 1994. Russia fights against the existence of united, strong and developed states at its borders, because these countries are not easy to control. Consequently, the promise that we will manage to regain territorial integrity and accelerate our development pace by straying from our foreign policy course is not in line with reality.
If we unilaterally say no to the West, Russia will only interfere in Georgia’s domestic affairs more rigorously, robbing us of the development opportunities presented by Western integration. Moreover, moving towards Euro-Atlantic structures implies adopting open and democratic governance system. Our western aspirations “force” us to create a strong and economically developed country, where an individual represents a core value. In such a society we have guaranteed freedom of speech, faith and a right to dignified life. The alternative to this path is backsliding and stagnating in economically and politically vulnerable Georgia. Therefore, if we evaluate the consequences, bandwagoning with Russia on our own initiative is an irrational choice.
Given all of the aforementioned, in order to deter Russia, apart from strong military capabilities, we require powerful allies.
What hinders us from moving closer to the West? The answer to this question can be divided into two parts. First, why the West is hesitant to include Georgia in its security architecture and second, what obstacles we need to overcome ourselves.
Why is the West treading carefully?
In order to answer this question, it is important to familiarize ourselves with the foreign policy views of the leader of the free world – the United States. The U.S. is the most powerful country in the world. In today’s reality, no other state has the capacity to project power in any given corner of the world, nor does any other country possess such an elaborate system of alliances. Despite this fact, given the threats facing the United States, the country is actively debating what the U.S. strategic interests are and which regions are worth focusing on.
In order to see this discussion in a wider context, Walter Russell Mead puts forward four schools of U.S. foreign policy thought. They are known as Hamiltonian, Wilsonian, Jeffersonian and Jacksonian schools. Each one of them sees U.S. vital national interests differently and these schools can serve as a guide for understanding the U.S. involvement in the world affairs.
The proponents of the Hamiltonian school of thought believe that the leading priority is developing stable market economy within the country and supporting global trade. According to this school, global influence must serve deepening of U.S. economic relations and protecting of U.S. economic interests. Alexander Hamilton, as the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, is considered as the founder of the country’s financial system and Hamiltonians revolve around the idea of the United States as an economic leader. In serving the country’s vital national interests, Hamiltonians do not shy away from independent action, which falls outside the limits set by international organizations. As one example, the leadership style of the former U.S. President George H.W. Bush is, at times, equated with the views of the Hamiltonian school of thought.
Those from the Wilsonian school of thought believe that the United States has a special role in the world and they lead with the idea of supporting peace through international institutions. According to Wilsonians, by spreading democracy and the U.S. values in the world, the country is fulfilling its moral obligation and is serving its national interests simultaneously, acting mainly with the help of international organizations. Woodrow Wilson is considered to be one of the most idealist Presidents in the U.S. history, whose name is connected with the creation of the League of Nations after the First World War. In the modern context, former U.S. Presidents Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama can be seen as proponents of the Wilsonian school of thought.
The Jeffersonian school of thought, which carries the name of the third U.S. President Thomas Jefferson, favors protecting democracy within the United States and is particularly concerned with the United States taking international obligations that the country either will not or cannot fulfill. Hence, this school is especially critical of interventionism, believing that military action abroad damages the U.S. democratic system. Libertarians and socialists often gather around the ideas of the Jeffersonian school of thought. For example, former candidates for U.S. presidency, Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul and Rand Paul, as well as the Democratic Congresswoman from the State of New York, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, share viewpoints with this school of thought.
For the representatives of the Jacksonian school, U.S. security and vital national interests are of primary importance and the U.S. military power is the main pillar for protecting these interests. This school carries the name of the seventh U.S. President, Andrew Jackson. The proponents of Jacksonian ideas avoid intervention, but if national interests are in danger, victory is the only alternative. Instead of acting through international institutions, Jacksonians do not shy away from independent decisions and firm military response. As Mead describes, for the Jacksonian school, attacking the U.S. is like stirring up a hornet’s nest and adequate reaction follows. Former U.S. Presidents Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush are often seen as Jacksonian presidents.
The debate about the pros and cons of these differing foreign policy schools is still ongoing today and which views dominate the U.S. decision-making critically influences the world order. It is important to note that U.S. presidents rarely lead with only one school of thought. Looking at history, the U.S. foreign policy vector is often a mixture of all four. However, what matters is which sets of ideas are the leading ones at any given time.
As Walter Russell Mead’s analysis shows, when identifying U.S. vital national interests, there is a constant clash of opinions between defending the international world order and defining U.S. interests more narrowly. Being the world’s policeman is a big burden for the United States and many decision-makers in the country are dissatisfied that the so-called free riders are taking advantage of the world order the U.S. has created. On Europe’s example, the low defense spending causes particular annoyance, together with construction of gas pipelines to Russia, as well as opposition to the U.S. efforts with Iran and China. In this context, tying states like Georgia to the U.S. security architecture is seen as an additional burden, which does nothing to further U.S. national interests.
Taking this context into account, it is important to let the U.S. decision-makers see why partnering with Georgia is worth their effort. By participating in international missions under the auspices of NATO and the EU, Georgia shows that it has the ability to not only be a consumer of security, but also be its provider. In addition, it is necessary to note that Russia, as a revisionist state, fights against U.S. influence in Europe. It is in the U.S. interests to support establishment of independent and strong states at Russia’s borders in order to contain the adversary. Russia is constantly checking how firm the U.S. commitment to European security is and abandoning states like Georgia and Ukraine in trouble sends a clear signal that red lines can also be challenged in the Central and Eastern Europe. Also, conceding to Russian demands serves as an indication to other U.S. regional rivals that it is possible to expand the areas of their influence at the expense of U.S. interests.
How can we boost U.S. involvement in Georgia?
Despite the fact that the dominant foreign policy outlook within the U.S. greatly influences our attempts to deepen cooperation with the country, it is no less important what our efforts are for facilitating this process. In order to improve our security, it is vital to maintain active pace of western integration, so that despite Russian opposition, we do not give up and manage to reach our goal.
On this path, three interconnected strategies can be outlined: aspiration to NATO membership, bilateral military cooperation with the U.S. and investment of significant resources in boosting our military potential.
Western Integration and membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is Georgia’s declared foreign policy goal. This is a cornerstone of our security and we must steadfastly continue on this path.
In addition, it is important to test the potential of bilateral military cooperation with the U.S. This means purchasing military equipment, joint trainings, but also the possibility of U.S. military deployments in the country. The arrival of a U.S. military base in Georgia is not a subject of simple negotiations. Currently, U.S. guarantees European security through NATO, which can hinder bilateral military engagement with Georgia. Nonetheless, this alternative must become a priority for our diplomatic efforts.
Occasionally, we hear domestic opposition to placing U.S. military bases in Georgia, which is labeled as provocative for Russia. It is important to understand what this development means for our security. Given the existing military balance, Russia could occupy the Baltic States in about 60 hours. Despite openly aggressive policy towards this region, why does Russia not invade? The answer is simple: Russia knows that following the initial victory, NATO will react and the country will have to deal with the U.S. armed forces.
In case of Georgia, the presence of a U.S. military base on our soil equals NATO membership, as it has the same deterrent effect vis-à-vis Russia, as the NATO security umbrella to the Baltic States. U.S. military bases can even be considered a stronger security guarantee, given the fact that NATO decision-making is based on a consensus between 29 member-states, while the U.S. forces can act unilaterally. Hence, the presence of U.S. troops in Georgia not only avoids provoking war, but helps us prevent it, since it becomes clear to Russia that attacking Georgia means confronting the U.S. The example of the Baltic States illustrates that Russia wants to avoid such a confrontation.
It is Georgia’s weakness that is truly provocative to Russia. A country left alone without strategic partners is a much easier target for Russia, compared to receiving an unequivocal support from the leading military force in the world that confrontation with Georgia means dealing with the U.S. forces.
Deploying U.S. military bases in Georgia is currently not on the agenda. Despite the fact that reaching this goal will not be feasible in a short-term perspective, it is important to use the alternatives that could be more acceptable to our partners in the current geopolitical reality. One such proposition comes from the former Commanding General of the United States Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, who recommends placing rotational forces in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Georgia. Lobbying such initiatives is the task of our diplomats.
Finally, as the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell stated during his visit to Georgia last year, “America continues to help those who help themselves in the struggle for freedom.” Significantly strengthening our armed and reserve forces by mobilizing our own resources is exactly the kind of help that we need to lend ourselves. Reducing military spending directly contradicts the idea of fighting for our freedom.
Related posts
- Hungary’s illiberal influence on Georgia’s European integration: a worrying pattern
- Expected Political Consequences of the Restoration of Railway Communication Between Russia and Georgia through Occupied Abkhazia
- The 11th package of EU sanctions and Georgia
- Occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region: Trade “Legalization” and Prospects of the Russian Transit Corridor
- Is Ukraine Winning the War and What Might Russia's Calculation Be?
- Russia's Diplomatic Offensive in Africa
- Russia’s New Foreign Policy Concept and the Occupied Regions of Georgia
- Power of the people in Georgia: The EU must remain vigilant
- The Tenth Package of Sanctions - One Year of Russian Aggression
- Dynamics of China-Russia relations against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian War
- The Russia-Ukraine War and Russia's Long-Term Strategic Interests
- Flight Resumption with Russia - Potential Consequences for Georgia
- On the "Agent of Foreign Influence'' Bill and Its Disastrous Consequences for Georgia
- Hybrid War with Russian Rules and Ukrainian Resistance
- Moldova’s challenges alongside the war in Ukraine
- How the Sino-American Competition Looks from Tbilisi
- Is Israel's New Government Shifting its Policy towards the Russia-Ukraine War?
- What does Russia want from Georgia?
- Geopolitics, Turkish Style, and How to React to It
- The Ninth Package of Sanctions - in Response to the Russian Escalation and Missile Attacks
- The Danger Russia’s Neighbors May Face after the Russo-Ukrainian War
- The Biden Doctrine and its Implications for Georgia
- Belarus and Russia deepen trade and economic relations with occupied Abkhazia: A prerequisite for recognition of Abkhazia's “independence”?
- "Captured emotions" - Russian propaganda
- A Looming Winter Energy Crisis in Europe: Can Azerbaijan Become the Continent’s Next Large Energy Supplier?
- The Eighth Package of Sanctions - Response to Russian Annexation and Illegal Referendums
- What’s next for Italy’s foreign policy after Giorgia Meloni’s victory?
- War in Ukraine and Russia’s declining role in the Karabakh peace process
- The Russian Exclave of Kaliningrad and the Lithuanian "Sting"
- Seventh Package of Sanctions and Embargo on Russian Gold
- What could be the cost of “Putin’s face-saving” for European relations
- In line for the candidate status, Georgia will get a European perspective. What are we worried about?
- The break-up of the Hungarian-Polish coalition - an opportunity for the EU
- Failed Tskhinvali Referendum
- The War and Georgia
- "Autocratic Peace"
- “Rural Orbanism”- Polarization as a determinant for Hungary's political future
- Illegal Presidential Elections in the Tskhinvali Region: Why Bibilov Lost and What to Anticipate in Future
- How to Respond to Russian Ultra-Orthodox-Historic-Hegemonism?
- The War in Ukraine and the UK’s New Role in Eastern Europe
- What Will the Abolition of the OSCE Minsk Group Bring to the South Caucasus?
- The Presidential Election in France and Europe’s Political Future
- Will Pashinyan Be Able to Make a Drastic Turnaround in Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations?
- Why Has the Abkhaz Side Become More Active on Social Networks?
- Why a Neutral Ukraine Is Not on Putin’s Mind (Ukraine’s Neutral Status Is Getting Closer, but What Does It Mean to Putin?)
- Europe's energy future - challenges and opportunities
- Uncontrolled Mass Immigration and the Position of the Georgian Government
- Changes in Putin's propaganda narratives since the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Ukraine will soon embark on a path of practical integration into the European Union. What about Georgia?
- Positions and Actions of Turkey in the Russo-Ukrainian War
- NATO’s possible expansion in Northern Europe and its significance for Georgia and Ukraine
- Political Winter Olympics in Beijing
- What Is behind Putin’s Sudden Gambit in Ukraine?
- Abkhazia in 2021: Energy Crisis, New “Minister” and Political Controversy
- L'Europe pourra-t-elle éviter le “déjà vu” ? (France, President of the Council of the European Union, and the Tensions in Eastern Europe)
- US-Russia Relations and the Issue of Ukraine
- The New Targets of Ramzan Kadyrov’s Regime
- What are the Prospects of the Eastern Partnership Summit Set on 15 December?
- The Upcoming EaP Summit - Why the Trio Initiative Should Finally Find Its Way
- What Will the Post-Merkel Era Mean for the EU’s Russia and Eastern Neighbourhood Policy?
- What Lies Behind the Growing Cooperation of the Georgian and Hungarian Governments
- “Doberman” as a Minister: Inal Ardzinba’s Prospects and Challenges
- The Belarus Crisis: How to Enhance Our Resilience Against the Russian Strategy for Its Near-Neighborhood
- Moldova’s Gas Crisis Has Been Russia’s Yet Another Political Blackmailing
- EU-Poland’s worsened relations and what it means for the EaP
- Lessons From Germany on Political Culture: What Georgia Can Learn From the German Parliamentary Elections
- Belarus One Year On: An Insecure Regime Under Russian “Protection”
- Why Did Iran-Azerbaijan Relations Become Strained?
- Russia’s Parliamentary Elections - What Can Be Said About the Regime’s Stability
- An Emerging Foreign Policy Trend in Central and Eastern Europe: A Turn from China to Taiwan?
- Vaccination: “To Be, or not to Be”…
- Can Georgia use China to balance Russia?
- Sharia Patrols in Kabardino-Balkaria: A Growing Trend or a Local Conflict?
- Belarus’ exit from the Eastern Partnership and what to expect next
- Pacta Sunt Servanda: Agreements must be kept
- The West vs Russia: The Reset once again?!
- Associated Trio, What is Next?
- Formation of a New “Political Elite” in Abkhazia - Who Will Replace the Old “Elite?”
- The symbolism of the EU flag and why a true Christian would not tear it down and burn it
- The Cyber-Dimension of the Geneva Summit
- Securitization of the Arctic: A Looming Threat of Melting Ice
- Europe in Anticipation of the Results of a “Harmful Deal”
- What Should Georgia Expect from the NATO Summit
- The Issue of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region in the Context of NATO and European Union Membership
- (Re)Mapping the EU’s Relations with Russia: Time for Change?
- USA, Liberal International Order, Challenges of 2021, and Georgia
- The Political Crisis in Moldova: A Deadlock without the Way Out?
- Russia's Testing or Bullying?
- Georgia's transit opportunities, novelties and challenges against the backdrop of the pandemic
- ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’: A New Opportunity for Global Authoritarian Influence?
- Deal with the ‘Dragon’: What Can Be the Repercussions of the China-EU Investment Agreement?
- Georgia’s Application for European Union Membership
- A New Dawn for Transatlantic Relations under Biden’s Presidency: What Are the Hopes for Georgia?
- The End of the Russian Natural Gas Monopoly in Balkans
- Who did the judge sentence: Navalny, Putin or Russia?
- Biden’s Conundrum
- 2020 Developments in Abkhazia: “Elections,” the Pandemic and Deeper Integration with Russia
- The Hungarian Crisis: Is the EU Failing against Authoritarianism?
- Could Belarus Become a Prelude to the Great Polish-Swedish War 400 Years Ago?
- Vladimir Putin's Annual Grand Press Conference - Notable Elements and Messages
- COVID 19 Pandemic Economic Crisis and Reducing the Instability of Georgia’s National Currency
- Russia’s Energy Policy in the Tskhinvali Region
- Who Won and Who Lost with the War in Karabakh?
- What Russia has Gained in Karabakh
- What Armenia Did and Did not Lose as a Result of the Ceasefire Declaration in Karabakh
- Escalation of the Karabakh Conflict: Threats and Challenges for Georgia
- Protests in Belarus, Lukashenko and the Russian Federation
- Some Thoughts on the Use of the Term „Post-Soviet Space“
- Georgia’s European Way During the Period of Pandemic Deglobalization
- Turkey's Caucasus Policy Against the Backdrop of the Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions
- Khabarovsk Krai Protests as an Indicator of the Russian Federation’s Stability
- The Pragmatism and Idealism of the Georgian-American Partnership
- Independence of Georgia and the Historic Responsibility of Our Generation
- Trio Pandemic Propaganda: How China, Russia and Iran Are Targeting the West
- Complications Caused by the Coronavirus in Turkey and Their Influence on Georgia
- From Russia with… a Canny Plan
- “Elections” in Abkhazia: New “President’s” Revanche and Challenges
- Consumer Crisis in the Tskhinvali Region: Food for Thought
- Georgians Fighting the Same Battle 99 Years Later
- Georgian Defense – Political Paradox and the Vicious Circle of Not Having a System
- Confrontation between Russia and Turkey in Syria
- Why It Matters: Georgia’s 'Troll Scandal' Explained
- Political Crisis in Occupied Abkhazia
- What is the Significance of Killing General Qasem Soleimani?
- What Will the New Dialogue Format with Russia Bring for Georgia?
- On the “Russian Culture Center” in Georgia
- Whither Economic Policy?
- Main Messages of Russian Propaganda
- Massive Cyberattacks On Georgia Calls For Defense And Resilience
- What do we know about the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Russian Federation and Georgia?
- What is the Connection between NATO and Reclaiming Abkhazia?
- New Focuses of the Anti-Occupation Policy
- Georgia's Problems are not Addressed at G7 Meetings: Who is to Blame?
- Vladimir Putin’s Main Messages in his Interview with the Financial Times
- Georgia and Russia’s Post-modern Fascism
- Dugin has Come Out as a Supporter of Georgia – How Did This Happen?
- The Outcome of the European Parliament Elections - What Does it Mean for Georgia?
- On NATO, Russia and Pat Buchanan
- Why Local Elections of March 31, 2019 in Turkey are Important?
- Does the Principle of Strategic Partnership Work in Ukraine-Georgia Relations?
- A New Chance for Circular Labor Migration between Georgia and the EU
- Modern Russia’s Own Wars of Religion
- Georgia’s Trade with Electricity: The Influence of Bitcoin
- Bolton’s visit to Moscow– what to expect in U.S-Russia relations?
- Georgia’s External Trade: How to Strengthen Positive Trends
- The Risk of the Renewal of the Karabakh Conflict after the Velvet Revolution in Armenia
- The Situation in Syria’s Idlib Province, Interests of the Parties and Threats
- The Helsinki Summit and its General Results
- Why It Is Necessary to Know the Day the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 Started
- Georgia’s Position in the Westernization Index 2018
- Why Did the Results of the G7 Summit in Charlevoix not Meet Our Expectations?
- How to Win Cold War 2.0
- The Ben Hodges Model – a Real Way for Georgia’s Membership in NATO
- The Russian “Ambassador’s” Rotation in Abkhazia
- Why did the Foreign Ministers of G7 not remember Georgia during their 23 April 2018 Toronto Meeting?
- Georgia and the American Strategy
- Putin’s Pre-Election Economic Promises: Myth and Reality
- Trade of Electricity: Successes of 2016, Reality of 2017 and Future Prospects– the Impact of Bitcoin (Part Two)
- Let Geneva Stay the Way it is
- Trade of Electricity: Successes of 2016, Reality of 2017 and Future Prospects – the Impact of Bitcoin (Part One)
- Turkey’s Military Operation in Afrin – a New Phase in the Syrian Conflict
- Kremlin New Appointments and the Occupied Regions of Georgia
- Geopolitical Vision of the Russian Opposition
- Dangers Originating from Russia and Georgia’s Security System
- Eurasian Custom Union and problems of Russian – Georgian FTA
- Is Georgia’s Export Growth Sustainable?
- Russia’s Influence over the Field of Security in Tskhinvali Region is Growing: Support for Full Integration
- What Awaits the People of Gali?
- Growth of Military Spending and Relations with Russia: Azerbaijan trying to Gain Advantage over Armenia
- Disrupt and Distract: Russia’s Methodology of Dealing with the West
- Trojan Horse Model IL- 76 or Why Would Russia Want to Fight Georgia’s Forest Fires
- Russian Diplomats in Georgia – who are they, how many of them are there and what are they up to
- Putin’s Visit to the Occupied Abkhazia: Was our Reaction Actually Adequate?
- Pence’s Visit to Georgia: Several Lessons and What We Should be Expecting
- Is it Acceptable for Georgia to Declare Neutrality?
- Georgia’s European Perspective in the Context of EU’s Future Evolution
- Brexit Negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom have been re-launched: What will be their Influence on Georgia?
- How to Stop the “Creeping Occupation”
- Kremlin’s Policy in the Occupied Regions of Georgia Moves to a New Stage
- Syrian Civil War in the Context of Regional Security
- The Winnable Second Round of Russia’s Neighbors’ Struggle against Its Imperialism
- Turkey’s Domestic and Foreign Policy in the Context of Regional Security
- Post-Soviet States – Struggle for the Legitimation of Power
- Parliamentary Elections in Armenia – The Triumph of the Governing Party
- Current Foreign Policy of Georgia: How Effective is it in Dealing with the Existing Challenges?
- Military Resilience - a Needed Factor for NATO-Partners
- Observations on the Agreement Reached with Gazprom
- New Russian Weaponry in the Caucasus and Its Impact on Georgia’s NATO Aspiration