X
|
Publication: N14 Review period: August 1-15, 2020 Russia claims regional hegemony in the post-Soviet space and considers that strengthening Western positions in the region poses a threat to its national interests. The purpose of our review is to provide readers with information about important events related to Russia’s policy in the post-Soviet space. The review is a biweekly publication and will be useful for everyone – decision-makers, public employees, media representatives and other people who are interested in the ongoing processes in post-Soviet countries.
Main Events:
Russian Leader Supports His Belarusian Counterpart Main Event: Following the presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, the President, Aleksander Lukashenko, received a pledge of support from the Russian leader. Event in Details: On August 9, presidential elections were held in Belarus. The incumbent President, Aleksander Lukashenko, was re-elected with the official results of the Central Election Commission of Belarus crediting him 80.1% of the vote. Protest rallies against Lukashenko, unprecedented for Belarus, were held once the first unofficial results were reported. Although Lukashenko's main rivals are either under arrest or out of the country, mass rallies across the Belarus continue to this day. Protesters demand Lukashenko to step down. Western reaction: Although relations between the West and Lukashenko have improved recently, the elections have been criticized by the West, saying that they were neither free nor fair. The West is working to introduce individual sanctions and is calling for new elections. Putin's support: On August 15, at the initiative of Lukashenko, a telephone conversation was held with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. The topic of conversation was the post-election situation in Belarus. Before the telephone conversation with Putin, Lukashenko said that the protests were organized using the method of "colorful revolutions" and these processes threaten the Union State. "I need to contact Putin and talk to him now, it is a threat not only to Belarus anymore," said Lukashenko. According to him, the protests are funded from abroad and the ongoing events in Belarus pose a threat to the CIS states.
Aleksander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. Source: RIA Novosti Lukashenko claims that Russia is ready to help Belarus ensure security. According to Lukashenko, if necessary, Russia will "fully assist" Belarus within the frameworks of the Union State and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, implying military assistance (a telephone conversation took place on August 16 as well. Once again, the parties agreed to act jointly against external threats). Why the Event is Important: Amid foreign criticism and unprecedented protests in Belarus, Lukashenko faces a real threat to his leadership for the first time in his 26-year rule. Despite recent political and economic confrontations with Russia, only Russia and Putin can help Lukashenko. Why the Event is Important for Russia: In recent years, Russia has tried to get Belarus to agree on deeper political and economic integration within the framework of the Union State. Lukashenko, however, has been opposed. The crisis in Belarus allows Russia to get more concessions from Minsk through its support for Lukashenko to maintain his power. In addition, if Lukashenko steps down amid the protests, this will be a bad precedent for Russia itself where Putin has been ruling the country for 20 years in spite of the string of complaints have accumulated against him.
Ukraine Withdraws from the Commonwealth of Independent States Bodies Main Event: On August 14, 2020, the President of Ukraine submitted a draft law to the Verkhovna Rada on Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Anti-Terrorist Center of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Event in Details: After the Russian aggression in 2014, Ukraine began the process of withdrawal from the CIS. In May 2018, the President, Petro Poroshenko, issued an order to withdraw from CIS international treaties. In recent months, Ukraine has terminated several agreements on cooperation within the CIS, namely: the agreement on the establishment of the CIS Council for Cultural Cooperation, the agreement on the preparation of military personnel for CIS border troops, the agreement on cooperation between the border troops of the CIS member countries in scientific research activities and the agreement on the establishment of a management board of the Financial Intelligence Unit. On April 1, 2019, the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was terminated. Is Ukraine a member of the CIS? Interestingly, Ukraine's membership in the CIS has been the subject of a constant legal debate. Ukraine has ratified the agreement on creation of the CIS; however, it has not signed the CIS Charter. Therefore, legally, Ukraine was considered only a founding state of the CIS and not a member. Why the Event is Important: With the termination of the agreements signed within the CIS, Ukraine is symbolically rejecting membership of the pro-Russian organization. Over the last decade, the CIS has become just a formal organization. Ukraine's withdrawal from CIS agreements once again demonstrates that Kyiv is against returning under the influence of Russia.
All Russian-Language Schools in Ukraine Will Switch to Teaching in Ukrainian from September 1 Main Event: From September 1, all Russian-language schools in Ukraine will switch to teaching in the state language – Ukrainian. Event in Details: Under the new law, effective September 1, 2020, most subjects in Russian-language schools will be taught in Ukrainian. However, the language law does not apply to all schools equally. For those schools where education is in the language of an EU member state, the law will come into force in 2023. Opponents of the law claim that the law discriminates against national minorities, especially Russian-speaking citizens. On July 8, 2020, in order to suspend the law, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine began debating the constitutionality of the language law. Also, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine began discussing a draft law that envisages postponing the Ukrainianization of schools for three years. However, the decision will not be made until the start of the new academic year. The Law on the Provision of the Functioning of the Ukrainian Language as the State language entered into force on July 16, 2019. The constitution of Ukraine states that Ukrainian is the only state language and it is the obligatory medium of communication throughout the entire territory of Ukraine. From July 16, 2020, a provision of the law that makes the use of the state language mandatory in the fields of science and healthcare will enter into force. From 2021, customer service should be conducted in the state language. From 2024, the commitment is to increase the use of the Ukrainian language in radio and television from 75% to 90%. The law does not apply to the sphere of private communication and religious rites. Why the Event is Important for Ukraine: Strengthening the positions of the state language will contribute to strengthening Ukrainian identity which is a crucial factor for the formation of the Ukrainian state - free from Russian influence. Why the Event is Important for Russia: In the long run, the enactment of the law, especially in the field of education, will weaken the influence of the Russian language in Ukraine which equates to the loss of cultural and political influences in Ukraine.
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Illegal Detention of Ukrainian Citizens Main Event: On August 10, 2020, the Ukrainian Ombudswoman, Lyudmila Denisova, stated that “Russia is currently holding 133 Ukrainian citizens on politically motivated charges, including 97 Crimean Tatars.” Event in Details: According to Denisova, Ukrainian citizens have been illegally detained on the territory of the Russian Federation and occupied Crimea. Restriction on movement has been imposed to their family members who require medical assistance and need Ukraine's support for their children to receive an education in their native languages. After the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, Russian authorities have subjected residents of Crimea, opposing Russia’s occupation, to harassment. Part of the population left the peninsula and moved to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. Those who remained on the peninsula and still showed political sympathy for Kyiv were subjected to discrimination. The occupation regime has intensified the persecution of Crimean Tatars under various pretexts and with the apparent goal of completely silencing dissent on the peninsula. Why the Event is Important: Russia seeks to ensure political loyalty of the Crimean population to the Russian occupation regime, including the Crimean Tatars. To achieve this goal, Moscow ill-treates people suspected of separatist, extremist activities and either arrests or forces them to leave the peninsula.
Azerbaijan Seeks Clarification on Military Cooperation between Russia-Armenia Main Event: On August 12, 2020, the President of Azerbaija, Ilham Aliyev, in a telephone conversation with the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, discussed the issue of military supply provision to Armenia.
Event in Details: According to Aliyev, since July 17, there has been an intense provision of military supply from Russia to Armenia which is a serious concern for Azerbaijan. According to Aliyev's press service, after the confrontation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Armenia received more than 400 tons of military goods from Russia via the airspace of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran. The main purpose of the telephone conversation was to clarify the issue. Putin’s administration also issued a statement about the telephone conversation; however, the delivery of military supply to Armenia was not mentioned in the statement. Border confrontation: On July 12, a military confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out far from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, about 55 km from the Georgian border, in the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan and the Tavush region of Armenia. At least five Armenian and 12 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed in the clashes. Military exercises: On July 29, Turkey-Azerbaijan joint military exercises, demonstrating support to Azerbaijan, were launched on the entire territory of Azerbaijan, including Nakhichevan and the surrounding areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. On August 12, in the final stage of the military exercises, the Turkish Defense Minister visited Azerbaijan. For its part, by the order of the President of Russia of July 17, 2020, a surprise complex check for combat readiness of the military units was launched in the Southern Military District of Russia, including the occupied regions of Armenia and Georgia. Also, preparatory exercises for strategic command-staff exercises - Kavkaz 2020, were launched in the District. Arms Trade: Armenia and Russia are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and in addition to Russian military bases deployed in Armenia, Armenia receives Russian weapons for free or at a reduced price. At the same time, Azerbaijan-Russian military cooperation has increased significantly in recent years. Reportedly, Azerbaijan has purchased weapons worth more than USD 4 billion from Russia in the last ten years. Why the Event is Important: Despite the strategic partnership between Russia-Armenia, Azerbaijan-Russian military cooperation has significantly developed in recent years. Baku hopes that the multibillion-dollar military contracts with Russia will be an advantage for Azerbaijan in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Russian military support for Armenia is perceived by Baku as a barrier to achieving the desired outcome.
Uzbekistan Will Teach its Russia Migrants the Russian Language Main Event: By the decree of August 11, 2020, of the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, measures have been determined to create decent conditions for Uzbek labor migrants to Russia and teach them different professions and the Russian language. Event in Details: The state agencies of Uzbekistan have three months to negotiate with educational centers in various Russian cities. First, cities with a large number of Uzbek labor migrants should be identified and selected. These cities are Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan, Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk. According to an earlier statement by the Director of the Agency for External Labor Migration, there are plans to open five offices of the Agency in Russia. According to the presidential decree, Uzbek migrants will master various professions and the Russian language after working hours. Training costs in special centers will be fully covered by the state. Uzbek migrants in Russia: It is difficult to determine the exact number of Uzbek migrants; however, according to available data their number is up to two million. Labor migrants from the Central Asian states comprise the largest part of the Russian labor market. With the highest number of labor migrants, Uzbekistan is followed by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Consequently, these countries receive the highest remittances from Russia. The remittances are reaching billions of dollars and are crucial for the region's economy. Why the Event is Important: Amid the pandemic and economic challenges, remittances from labor migrants are an important source of income for the economy of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan will face economic and political challenges if, in the wake of the crisis in Russia, labor migrants from Russia return en masse to their homeland. For this reason, Uzbekistan is trying to set up a support system on the spot and keep the Uzbek migrant labor in Russia.
Migrant Crisis on the Russian-Kazakh Border Main Event: Following to the decision of the Kazakh government, migrants stranded on the Russian-Kazakh border have returned to their homeland. Event in Details: In March, in order to prevent the spread of the new Coronavirus, Russia closed its borders with neighboring countries, including its allies - the Eurasian Economic Union member states. Restrictions on border crossing have also created problems for labor migrants from the Central Asian countries who were working in Russia. Due to the restrictions applied to air and land travel, many migrants were stranded along the Russian-Kazakh border and were unable to return to their homeland. Some Tajik, Uzbek and Kyrgyz migrants gathered along the Russian-Kazakh border. They were sheltered in a specially arranged camp. On July 25, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs accused the migrants of organizing unauthorized rallies amid the pandemic. On August 3, the migrants attempted to cross the border by force and return to their homeland which ended in confrontation with Russian border guards. On August 3, at the meeting of the Security Council of Russia, the Deputy Chairman of the Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated that many migrants lost their jobs due to the pandemic and were pushed to engage in criminal activities. On August 5, following the incidents on the border, Kazakhstan decided to repatriate migrants. Forty buses were allocated for 2,435 Kyrgyz citizens to return to their homeland. A total of 2,200 citizens of Uzbekistan were given the opportunity to return to their homeland by train. Why the Event is Important: Due to the pandemic, Russia faces economic challenges which might leave Central Asian labor migrants unemployed, leaving them a choice - either stay and get engaged in illegal and criminal activities or return to their homeland where there is also an economic crisis due to the pandemic. |
